Carson vs. Trump: The Latest in Poll Wars

By Anthony Massey on Oct 28, 2015 03:03 PM EDT

In a recent CBS/New York Times poll, Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson has edged out Donald Trump for support among Republicans.

For the first time in the Republican presidential primary race, Ben Carson is leading the polls. This no doubt comes as a bit of a surprise to billionaire contender Donald Trump, "a development sure to force the billionaire businessman to modify his well-polished campaign stump boast that he's 'leading every poll.'"

In fact, Trump "told MSNBC's 'Morning Joe' Tuesday morning 'I don't get it.'"

No doubt Trump plans to try and regain some momentum for his campaign during the upcoming Republican primary debate tonight. It will be interesting to see whether or not one of the contenders attempts to use these latest poll numbers in the debate. With the way previous primary debates have gone, it would not be surprising in the least. Irrelevant attacks tend to be "in" for some reason.

However, as with all polls, it is extremely important to remember how quickly things can change even over the course of a week. Someone could dig up legitimate dirt on one of the candidates that would crash the campaign of the most worthy candidate (whoever that is).

Additionally, CNN pointed out some food for thought considering this poll.

"The poll does carry an important caveat, however: 70% of respondents said they had not settled on a choice yet. Trump's supporters, however, are more locked in with their support.

The most recent CBS/New York Times poll surveyed 575 Republican primary voters and carries a 6-percentage-point margin of error."

While polling has become more of a science over the last century (who doesn't like predicting the future accurately), there are still notable margins of error. Depending on where the polled people lived, what culture they belong to, etc., these things can affect the outcome of a poll significantly. A poll taken primarily from New York City Republicans more than likely will vary differently from a poll looking at Republicans from South Carolina or California.

Whether you favor Donald Trump or a supporter of Ben Carson, the latest poll is an interesting indicator of the quickly shifting balances of politics.

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TagsBen Carson, Donald Trump, 2016 Presidential Election, Republican, Republican Nomination

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