While the Tony Awards may not be exactly comparable to the Super Bowl of Broadway, the accolades and reverence that comes with winning the statue is akin to a Super Bowl ring. Both on the stage and on an individual level, an actor, actress or production can win a handful of awards showcasing their talent and propel them into legend. The "Super Bowl" matchup this year includes Hamilton, Lin-Manuel Miranda's brainchild that has dominated the box office since last year.
However, there are four primary awards that help determine the best of the best on Broadway during a season: Best Play, Best Musical, Best Revival of a Play and Best Revival of a Musical.
The committee that handles all the nominations of the Tony Awards meets roughly four times a year to discuss eligibility for shows that season. They first met in November to discuss the eligibility rules for 10 shows, including Hamilton and Spring Awakening. The committee met again on January 7 to determine the eligibility of six Broadway productions, including On Your Feet! and China Doll.
These eligibility meetings are key in determining what production is a contender for a Tony. With almost half of the eligible shows having their likelihood set, there's a clear picture for which shows should be up for nominations in various categories.
With just focusing on the shows that have already had their eligibility discussed by the committee, Hamilton will be the leader by far. According to secondary market ticket aggregator TiqIQ, the average price for Hamilton tickets is currently $634, which is the highest average price on the secondary market for all of Broadway.
Over the past few years, the show that tends to have the highest price also tends to win Best Play or Best Musical. The only exception to this rule is last year's winner, Fun Home, which had limited secondary market tickets because of the theater's small capacity. In 2011 when The Book of Mormon won Best Musical, tickets for the show were averaging $278.
At under half the secondary ticket price of Hamilton, The Book of Mormon's winning history may help to depict how Hamilton will fare this year. Both shows have similar roots, in that they are different than classic Broadway productions, and both shows have added much needed originality to the Great White Way. If Book of Mormon was considered a sure-winner when it took home the Tony in 2011, the certainty that Hamilton will come home with a slew of awards is almost guaranteed, if ticket sales and massive press are the largest indicator, anyway.
The 70th Annual Tony Awards will be held on June 12th at the Beacon Theatre. It will be broadcast live on CBS. Official nominations will be announced live from the Paramount Hotel on May 3. The officially eligibility cut-off date is Thursday April 28 for all Broadway productions that are opening in the 2015-2016 season.
Before the Tony Awards show happens, though, make sure to be familiar with the Broadway productions that are nominated.
